Association of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Index and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Records in Southeastern North Carolina

Abstract

The 1997-98 winter was an important El Niiio season, received much media attention, and was blamed for many climatic aberrations worldwide. Although El Niiio and the Southern Oscillation have been correlated with climate patterns in the circum-Pacific regions, there is a question as to what degree El Niiio influenced climate as far away as southeastern North Carolina. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a climatological variable that assesses the El Niiio situation in the Pacific. Correlation analysis is utilized to find a statistical link between the SOI and monthly averages of temperature, and monthly totals of precipitation. Lag correlations and other associations are also sought. Analysis showed that the magnitude of monthly SOI values does not directly correlate with the magnitude of monthly averages of temperature or monthly precipitation totals in southeastern North Carolina. Significant lag correlations indicate that subtler links may exist, but the SOI alone has little power for prediction of the climatic pattern in the region. Climate records indicate that not all El Niiio/La Niiia events are the same, nor do they exert the same influence on southeastern North Carolina. The public is advised not to perceive the "El Nino effect" as a catch-all explanation of
all weather events. This paper illustrates that there is a need for more studies on global atmospheric circulation systems and their links to inter-regional climate patterns that affect southeastern North Carolina.