North Carolina's Final Coastal Frontier

Land Cover Change in the Inner Banks, 1996-2001

Abstract

North Carolina's coastal region has a long history of development that is most concentrated in oceanfront regions such as the Outer Banks and other barrier island beach communities. As land becomes scarce in oceanfront regi ons, interior coastal z ones have the potential to act as outlets to absorb development pressure related to amenity, retirement, and working age in-migrants. A recent news article published in 2006 claims that this process is already underway and that the interior co ast is experiencing an inland "coastal bo om". I define the Inner Banks as a new regional entity and examine the inland co astal boom theme by addressing two questions: (1) What are the patterns of net land cover change?, and (2) What are the most important types of land cover change?. Using 1996 and 2001 NOAA land cover data, I employ change analysis techniques involving analysis of the land cover transition matrix. Results indicate a small net gain in developed land area. However, of this gain, there is a strong signal of conversion from forest and scrub in 1996 to developed by 2001. Results are disag gregated from the entire Inner Banks region to the county level to tnap and report results which demonstrate substantial geographic variation with highest gains in developed area occurring in Carteret, Craven, Hertford, Chowan, and Pasquotank counties. If the Inner Banks is indeed North Carolina's final coastal frontier, then population growth and land development during the next decades have the potential to dramatically alter the region's land cover, ecosystems, economy, and-cultural sense of place.